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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest surprise.

But the current race is distinctly different. The list of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions declining and recent strugglers ascending together. During an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a normal season!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a given after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still